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Nov 15 2024
15 min read
1. Trump's new regulators and M&A
- Since the decisive presidential election of Donald J. Trump in the US earlier this month, there have been a swath of reports about who he will nominate to take on key roles at US regulatory bodies and federal agencies. Even before the election, reports suggested that Trump would seek to install staunch loyalists, after feeling burned by defectors in his last term.
- According to the Appointments Clause of the US Constitution, the Senate needs to confirm “principal” officers such as Cabinet Secretaries, US Attorneys, the heads of independent regulatory agencies (e.g. Fed, SEC, FCC, FTC, CFPB, NLRB), and ambassadors, with a simple majority. With the Republicans lately taking control of both House and Senate, Trump will have greater latitude to get his preferred nominees through the confirmation process. Not all Republicans are universally in favor of his picks, however, with sharp criticism coming even from conservative outlets like the WSJ.
- Department of Justice (DOJ): Trump nominated Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Florida) to be the US Attorney General – America’s chief law-enforcement officer and the head of the DOJ. A controversial pick, Gaetz resigned from the House after the news was released, and before an Ethics Committee report could be released related to allegations of sexual misconduct, drug use, and improper gifts. Trump also named attorneys that have represented him as the next 3 ranking staff at the DOJ – Todd Blanche as deputy attorney general (requires Senate confirmation), Emil Bove as principal associate deputy attorney general (serving as acting deputy AG in the meantime, since the role doesn’t require confirmation), and D. John Sauer as solicitor general (the DOJ’s top advocate before the Supreme Court, a role that does require confirmation). Trump furthermore nominated former SEC chair Jay Clayton as the US Attorney for Southern District of New York (SDNY) under the DOJ, which has jurisdiction over major banks and is known for complex cases involving organized crime, corruption, and international entities. All US Attorneys require Senate confirmation.
- Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): Trump nominated former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-New York) as EPA Administrator, a role that requires Senate confirmation. Trump has directed Zeldin to take deregulatory actions to remove red tape hampering US businesses. On X, Zeldin promised to “restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs, and make the US the global leader of AI. We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water.” The language suggests that the EPA will be less restrictive on energy permitting, including oil and gas projects as well as nuclear power for data centers.
- Department of Defense (DoD): In a surprise pick that sparked concerns about experience, Trump nominated Fox News commentator Pete Hegseth to be Defense Secretary. Hegseth is a decorated Army veteran, and holds a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton and a master’s degree in public policy from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. (Hegseth was considered for a Cabinet role during Trump’s first term, although accusations of infidelity and nepotism helped scuttle that.) Hegseth has criticized “woke” military leaders and women in combat, and advocated for “cleaning house” and a 10-year ban on generals working for defense contractors post-retirement. He has been critical of NATO (North American Treaty Organization) allies “not spending enough” on defense, shown impatience of treaties that place limits on battlefield engagement, and sought pardons for service members accused of war crimes. Separately, Trump’s transition team is also reportedly planning a broader overhaul of senior military leaders at the DoD.
- Department of Health and Human Services (HHS): In another controversial move, Trump nominated presidential candidate and noted vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr (RFK Jr) – son of Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of John F. Kennedy – to be head of the HHS. The HHS oversees the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the National Institutes of Health (NIH), among other agencies. RFK Jr has advocated for a ban on a broad array of food additives and chemicals, removing fluoride from water, shutting down the FDA’s nutrition department, lifting certain FDA restrictions (e.g. raw milk, psychedelics, stem cells, vitamins), and firing 600 NIH employees and redirecting half of the NIH’s budget towards preventative and alternative approaches.
- Department of State: Trump nominated Sen. Marco Rubio to be Secretary of State – America’s top diplomat. A hawkish establishment figure with foreign-policy experience, Rubio has backed US support for Ukraine in the past but has lately shifted to advocating for an end to the conflict.
- Department of Homeland Security (DHS): Trump nominated South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to be head of the DHS. Noem, who has taken an aggressive stance on immigration, is expected to oversee Trump’s “mass deportations.” She’ll be working alongside Tom Homan, an ex-Border Patrol agent and former acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) director during Trump’s first term, who has been newly appointed by Trump as border czar; and immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller, who has been named Homeland Security Advisor in addition to his role as deputy chief of staff for policy (see below). While Noem’s role will require Senate confirmation, the latter two positions will not.
- Director of National Intelligence (DNI): Trump nominated Army veteran and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) as DNI, which is a role that coordinates the 18 US intelligence agencies in the Intelligence Community (IC), including the CIA, NSA, and FBI. Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party in late 2022, has lately been serving as one of the honorary co-chairs of Trump’s transition team. The DNI is a role that requires Senate confirmation.
- Central Intelligence Agency (CIA): Trump nominated ex-Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Texas) – the former director of national intelligence during the first Trump term – as head of the CIA. Ratcliffe is generally being viewed as a professional choice by members of the Intelligence Community. The role requires Senate confirmation.
- National Security Advisor: Trump named decorated Green Beret veteran Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Florida) as National Security Advisor, a Cabinet-level role. Waltz is a Ukraine skeptic and hawk on both China and Iran. The appointment does not require Senate confirmation.
- Department of the Interior: Trump nominated North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum to lead the Interior Department. Burgum, a former software exec with ties to oil companies, has been an advocate for drilling. As Secretary, he will oversee 500M+ acres of public lands (including national parks) and extensive coastal waters; leasing for oil and gas drilling and wind/solar farms; protection of threatened and endangered species; and US relationships with recognized tribes.
- Department of Veteran Affairs (VA): Trump has nominated ex-Rep. Doug Collins (R-Georgia) as VA Secretary. Collins, an Iraq war veteran and chaplain, backed Trump during his first impeachment and served as a legal counsel for Trump after his presidential term ended.
- The new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): Tesla/SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the “outside of government” DOGE, which will be focused on cutting wasteful spending, reducing regulations, and “dismantling bureaucracy” (incl. restructuring federal agencies). Musk has floated ideas like public input on cost-cutting and a leaderboard to track wasteful spending. DOGE’s X account already has 1.4M followers as of this writing. While details on funding have not been released yet, the two heads are not expected to become paid government employees.
- White House staff: Trump has named his co-campaign manager Susie Wiles as chief of staff; communications strategist Dan Scavino as deputy chief of staff; immigration hard-liner Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy; political strategist James Blair as deputy chief of staff for legislative, political and public affairs; MAGA super-PAC (political action committee) head Taylor Budowich as deputy chief of staff for communications and personnel; and Republican campaign lawyer Bill McGinley as White House Counsel. These roles are generally considered part of the Executive Office of the President and do not need to be confirmed by the Senate.
- US ambassadors: Trump’s ambassador nominations so far have focused on the Middle East. Trump nominated Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-New York) to be ambassador to the United Nations (UN). Stefanik has been critical of the UN’s alleged antisemitism and called for a “complete reassessment” of US funding to the UN. Trump also nominated former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a noted supporter of Israeli settlements, to be the ambassador to Israel, and named real-estate investor Steve Witkoff as special envoy to the Middle East. Like Cabinet Secretaries, US ambassadorships and special envoys require Senate confirmation.
- The above is only what has happened so far as of this writing. Trump still has to nominate his Secretaries of Treasury (rumors say Scott Bessent or Howard Lutnick, among others), Agriculture (rumors say Sarah Frey or Charles Herbster, among others), Education (which Trump has pledged to shut down), Energy (rumors say Dan Brouillette, among others), Commerce (rumors say Linda McMahon, among others), Labor (rumors say Brandon Williams or Andrew Puzder, among others), Transportation (rumors say Garret Graves or Sam Graves, among others), and Housing and Urban Development (HUD; rumors say Bill Pulte or Ben Carson, among others), as well as the US Trade Representative (USTR), Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), Small Business Administration (SBA) Administrator, and plenty of ambassadorships and other roles.
- As promised, Trump has largely appointed loyalists so far. Business executives and investors are expected to have a more prominent role under the new Trump presidency, potentially as advisors in his administration. Trump has drawn closer to certain factions within tech over the course of this election, including prominent venture investors and big tech firms (which have softened their stance regarding Trump of late).
- Given there’s a good chance that Jonathan Kanter, head of the DOJ’s antitrust division, is also likely to be replaced under a Trump administration, it represents a shakeup that could open up M&A transactions across the industry – or at least for non-big tech companies who aren’t Trump enemies. (Even with respect to Google, Trump has implied that he may not be in favor of a breakup.) Goldman Sachs is projecting a 20% jump in M&A in 2025 vs. the 15% decline seen in 2024.
- Trump has sworn to fire SEC chair Gary Gensler “on day one,” although he would likely need to show cause such as “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office.” (Gensler’s term ends in Jun 2026.) Alongside Trump’s expected reversal of President Biden’s executive order on AI regulation, it signals a potential reinvigoration of the crypto and AI sectors.
- While Republicans will control both chambers of Congress, the next Senate majority leader will be long-time Mitch McConnell deputy John Thune (who was elected through a secret ballot), while Mike Johnson has been renominated as Speaker of the House. This could provide some continuity, despite Trump’s demand that the Senate majority leader allow him to make recess appointments.
- That may not be a real constraint on Trump’s agenda, however. Earlier this week, a Rolling Stone reporter floated a rumor from a US senator on X that Musk has threatened to fund a primary challenge against “any House Republican who doesn’t fall in line with Trump’s agenda.” Musk himself has said his PAC will stay active post-election, increasing Republican registrations in key districts in preparation for special elections and the midterms, and playing a “significant role in primaries.”
Related Content:
- Nov 8 2024 (3 Shifts): Tariffs and the economy under a new administration
- Jul 1 2022 (3 Shifts): Regulatory agencies beyond the FTC are cracking down on businesses
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Disclosure: Contributors have financial interests in Alphabet. Amazon and Google are vendors of 6Pages.
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